Where Do We Go From Here? A Framework for Using Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered Models for Policy Making in Emerging Infectious Diseases.

OBJECTIVES: Throughout the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) modeling has been the preeminent modeling method to inform policy making worldwide. Nevertheless, the usefulness of such models has been subject to controversy. An evolution in the epidemiological modeling field is urgently needed, beginning with an agreed-upon set of modeling standards for policy recommendations. The objective of this article is to propose a set of modeling standards to support policy decision making. METHODS: We identify and describe 5 broad standards: transparency, heterogeneity, calibration and validation, cost-benefit analysis, and model obsolescence and recalibration. We give methodological recommendations and provide examples in the literature that employ these standards well. We also develop and demonstrate a modeling practices checklist using existing coronavirus disease 2019 literature that can be employed by readers, authors, and reviewers to evaluate and compare policy modeling literature along our formulated standards. RESULTS: We graded 16 articles using our checklist. On average, the articles met 6.81 of our 19 categories (36.7%). No articles contained any cost-benefit analyses and few were adequately transparent. CONCLUSIONS: There is significant room for improvement in modeling pandemic policy. Issues often arise from a lack of transparency, poor modeling assumptions, lack of a system-wide perspective in modeling, and lack of flexibility in the academic system to rapidly iterate modeling as new information becomes available. In anticipation of future challenges, we encourage the modeling community at large to contribute toward the refinement and consensus of a shared set of standards for infectious disease policy modeling.

A US Population Health Survey on the Impact of COVID-19 Using the EQ-5D-5L.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in negative impacts on the economy, population health, and health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL). OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of COVID-19 on US population HRQoL using the EQ-5D-5L. DESIGN: We surveyed respondents on physical and mental health, demographics, socioeconomics, brief medical history, current COVID-19 status, sleep, dietary, financial, and spending changes. Results were compared to online and face-to-face US population norms. Predictors of EQ-5D-5L utility were analyzed using both standard and post-lasso OLS regressions. Robustness of regression coefficients against unmeasured confounding was analyzed using the E-Value sensitivity analysis. SUBJECTS: Amazon MTurk workers (n=2776) in the USA. MAIN MEASURES: EQ-5D-5L utility and VAS scores by age group. KEY RESULTS: We received n=2746 responses. Subjects 18-24 years reported lower mean (SD) health utility (0.752 (0.281)) compared with both online (0.844 (0.184), p=0.001) and face-to-face norms (0.919 (0.127), p<0.001). Among ages 25-34, utility was worse compared to face-to-face norms only (0.825 (0.235) vs. 0.911 (0.111), p<0.001). For ages 35-64, utility was better during pandemic compared to online norms (0.845 (0.195) vs. 0.794 (0.247), p<0.001). At age 65+, utility values (0.827 (0.213)) were similar across all samples. VAS scores were worse for all age groups (p<0.005) except ages 45-54. Increasing age and income were correlated with increased utility, while being Asian, American Indian or Alaska Native, Hispanic, married, living alone, having history of chronic illness or self-reported depression, experiencing COVID-19-like symptoms, having a family member diagnosed with COVID-19, fear of COVID-19, being underweight, and living in California were associated with worse utility scores. Results were robust to unmeasured confounding. CONCLUSIONS: HRQoL decreased during the pandemic compared to US population norms, especially for ages 18-24. The mental health impact of COVID-19 is significant and falls primarily on younger adults whose health outcomes may have been overlooked based on policy initiatives to date.